TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Toronto Blue Jays61c14,961$9,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,834.923948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Toronto Blue Jays62c6,000$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,28021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Atlanta Braves39c5,293$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.417647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Atlanta Braves38c4,374$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.1119546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked Atlanta Braves39c3,077$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Atlanta Braves40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20011848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Atlanta Braves39c2,570$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.315451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Atlanta Braves39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Atlanta Braves41c2,218$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays61c1,477$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.918,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays59c1,124$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.9111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Atlanta Braves38c1,088$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.361,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves39c867.2$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.214,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays62c859.52$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.621,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays61c799.98$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves17c650.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.368,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Atlanta Braves39c640$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.611454.4%62 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves38c499.93$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays61c440$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves39c384.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays59c238.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Atlanta Braves39c219.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.82045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays61c195.06$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.053,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays67c132$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.568,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…0201backed Atlanta Braves39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7710744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Toronto Blue Jays62c81.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8913853.6%74 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays78c80.08$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.954,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves26c68.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb6…64d2backed Atlanta Braves39c63.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.184845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves39c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.571,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Atlanta Braves38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfb6…67edbacked Atlanta Braves39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Toronto Blue Jays62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Toronto Blue Jays62c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.242045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed Atlanta Braves39c43.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.025947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Toronto Blue Jays62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.28247.6%39 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf683…9b71backed Toronto Blue Jays62c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Toronto Blue Jays62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2615552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays74c16.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.