MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbedc64feb06e4f520303217c29a7388dbbf0bea87e2bad47c52a46c894af332a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 14,961$9,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,834.9 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 5,293$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.41 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 4,374$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.11 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 3,077$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 2,570$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.3 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,218$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,477$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,124$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 1,088$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.36 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 867.2$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 859.52$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.62 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 799.98$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 17c | 650.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 640$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 499.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 440$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 384.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 238.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 219.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 195.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 132$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…0201backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 80.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 68.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…64d2backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 63.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…27e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 43.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…9b71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.