MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc048af375d657087a39e3a9b8d98e7b37274befa8c6bd247136539ecd66d0aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 4,632$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.15 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 3,135$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked No | 55c | 1,827$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.1 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed No | 57c | 1,760$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.3 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 56c | 1,251$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.43 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 1,019$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 42c | 506.47$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 39c | 437$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 58c | 420.61$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 57c | 412$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 233.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 29c | 211.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked No | 55c | 180.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c6…21e5backed No | 58c | 167.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 36c | 165.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed No | 61c | 163.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Yes | 47c | 154.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 153.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked No | 58c | 112.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 72c | 104.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…7275backed No | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Yes | 43c | 79.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 21c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 57.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 42c | 54.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 42c | 45.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…debbbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed No | 57c | 44.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6dccbacked No | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked No | 79c | 39.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 33c | 37.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 52c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked No | 78c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed No | 79c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed No | 78c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.