MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd10d9a1229f75df6e69e0e17b4b6969772d9842241ca765b91bb8286cc5d4212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 5,044$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 2,491$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,186$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,626$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 1,593$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.33 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 1,265$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.83 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 879.17$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 3c | 833.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 755.82$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 50c | 486.98$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 59c | 475.63$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 60c | 461.85$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…9ef3backed Over | 52c | 434.67$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 399.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Over | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 59c | 389$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 333.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 333.6$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 6c | 306.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 51c | 198.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 136.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 120.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 50c | 117$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 57c | 101.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 57c | 99.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 98.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 50c | 79.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 76.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 73.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 51c | 72.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Under | 20c | 64.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 62c | 62.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 53.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 39c | 51.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Under | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 66c | 39.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 38.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 35.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 39c | 34.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 40c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 38c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 45c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…04f0backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2964backed Over | 62c | 24.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd5…878bbacked Under | 63c | 23.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 43c | 23.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…65dbbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Over | 66c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.