MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc848c2ec0d90754050a00dcc0f8a13a02c7e2eb71e40c45071349f2dd6ff162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 61,975$44,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,972.78 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 21,099$6,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,142.84 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 18,682$5,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,417.78 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 9,155$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 9,045$6,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,652.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 8,576$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 5,135$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.16 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 2,100$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 1,699$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 1,605$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 887.03$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.24 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 868.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 844.83$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 416.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 344.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 333.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 166.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…5e1fbacked Atlanta Braves | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 111.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 107.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 94.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 67.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…c695backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 63.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 56.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 52.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126c…0816backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 51.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…d2bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…64d2backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 47.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…13c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…82e5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.