MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11e98319866ed60f6856864730b0e58c0d575562db9873cddbd4bc47db07248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 72c | 3,196$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 1c | 2,418$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 4c | 2,074$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 77c | 1,417$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.71 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 19c | 1,346$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 566.93$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 3c | 415.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 11c | 349.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…fcabbacked Under | 18c | 217.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 19c | 127.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 31c | 105.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 19c | 100.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 19c | 92.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 83.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked Over | 73c | 66.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…0a91backed Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 24c | 51.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 71c | 50.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 30c | 41.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 40c | 37.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…6b7cbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 76c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.