MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c0c45da86a530cd28d03e921c64b9e726572dfd662984338e48080a53860697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 49c | 27,272$13,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,275.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 18,130$9,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,901.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 9,987$5,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 3,518$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…e42fbacked Under | 49c | 3,044$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.04 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under | 62c | 2,407$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.92 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 28c | 2,009$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,383$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 976.34$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 939.55$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 701.48$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 619.02$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Under | 60c | 501.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 53c | 361.13$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 40c | 334.9$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 311.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 244$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 59c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Under | 51c | 195.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 41c | 136.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 129.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 52c | 100.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Over | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 35c | 60.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 46c | 56.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 53.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 52c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 44c | 41.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 51c | 36.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 36.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Under | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…e560backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Over | 51c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.