WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f631db837b8b1f7f9664a0c35567c5f17f67252114cf64054ae58dacbee2983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, Dallas Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6820…1c19backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 60,000$29,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,206.37 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings | 51c | 17,172$8,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,722.56 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 12,680$6,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,662.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 10,684$5,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,459.51 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 10,057$4,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.91 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 10,050$5,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,326.74 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Dallas Wings | 52c | 3,637$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.84 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 3,097$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.5 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 2,991$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.76 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 2,728$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 2,388$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 2,347$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.07 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 2,179$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.12 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 1,951$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.61 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 1,687$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.24 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 1,349$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.64 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Dallas Wings | 33c | 1,206$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.52 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.83 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 1,088$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.81 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 1,068$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.19 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 986.69$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.21 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 887.98$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.75 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 860.4$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Dallas Wings | 61c | 821.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…accdbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b97…ecd3backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 670.84$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 670.22$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.26 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Dallas Wings | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.67 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…ec19backed Dallas Wings | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 64c | 430.6$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 424.44$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 321$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d64…ba4abacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Dallas Wings | 52c | 291.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 190.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 178.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5b1dbacked Dallas Wings | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 151.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 148.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Dallas Wings | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 99.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Dallas Wings | 54c | 93.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 81.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…9f6bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 63.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…b846backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 57.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 53.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 69c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 36.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Golden State Valkyries | 65c | 36.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 34.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Golden State Valkyries | 60c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Dallas Wings | 34c | 32.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Dallas Wings | 34c | 32.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 29.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…b001backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 19.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)this page
- Dallas Wings vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5Under won
- Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.