TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa622…4448backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost-$10011325.7%29 W · 84 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes16c510.38$82 inLost-$81.6627820.1%56 W · 222 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…b1cdbacked Yes10c500$48 inLost-$481513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes16c500$80 inLost-$8014116.3%23 W · 118 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1406…b512backed Yes16c498.3$80 inLost-$805933.9%20 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91e…a433backed Yes17c120.22$20 inLost-$2016739.5%66 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafc6…3626backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$1533123.6%78 W · 253 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost-$1537526.1%98 W · 277 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes17c88.24$15 inLost-$1566745%300 W · 367 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9146…2813backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost-$1517336.4%63 W · 110 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a2…eea0backed Yes20c75$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c0…4ae4backed Yes16c63.44$10 inLost-$101752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a74…a949backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$102050%10 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+88.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf855…d955backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.210260.8%62 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.