Fifa International · resolved market
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf996e2faf076540ab1814381cf7baa11a43dd102aa57464b1fa0b4a25d23c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf17a…fa3abacked No | 42c | 1,477$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.52 | 162 | 60.5%98 W · 64 L | +22.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 56c | 1,089$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.13 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes | 58c | 702.98$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.9 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…c794backed Yes | 68c | 399.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 42c | 309.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.59 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…02eabacked No | 32c | 308.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.11 | 66 | 71.2%47 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 40c | 290.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…ea1fbacked Yes | 48c | 250.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 50c | 199.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461e…5ce2backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 39c | 153.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 41c | 146.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…566cbacked No | 32c | 132.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 65 | 84.6%55 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +29%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…1c02backed Yes | 42c | 113.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…ac32backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…4f10backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…4069backed Yes | 39c | 76.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…e8fabacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Yes | 60c | 51.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 133 | 64.7%86 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 60c | 49.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…8861backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 58c | 27.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | +13.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…93c3backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…478bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luis Díaz: 3+ shotsthis page
- Breel Embolo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ shotsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 2+ shotsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 3+ shotsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ goalsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 2+ assistsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shotsNo won
- Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Fabian Rieder: 1+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ shotsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shotsYes won
- Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shotsYes won
- Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ assistsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 2+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 3+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jhon Arias: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jhon Arias: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ shotsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 2+ shotsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 4+ shotsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.