TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blackhawks vs. Wild

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blackhawksof Blackhawks, Wild
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$974,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $974,583 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 613 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blackhawks33c427,749$142,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284,796.2167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Blackhawks35c114,300$40,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,294.9748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wild67c110,294$73,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,582.6861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Blackhawks33c88,189$29,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,719.6124349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Wild68c80,000$54,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,40015054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wild65c55,415$36,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,019.6351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Wild66c37,157$24,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,523.6620552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Wild65c33,735$21,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,927.6736748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Wild66c31,174$20,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,574.973850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Wild62c30,458$18,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,983.7527448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Wild64c30,000$19,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,315.7322443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Wild65c27,643$18,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,025.482564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Wild67c26,325$17,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,637.547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blackhawks37c20,461$7,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,853.051,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wild66c18,640$12,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,272.891,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wild66c17,779$11,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,743.7345751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Wild66c15,957$10,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,531.6151452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blackhawks48c15,031$7,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,811.531,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Wild66c14,900$9,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,83412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3d…3165backed Wild66c14,900$9,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8341050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Wild47c14,385$6,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,713.1612838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Blackhawks35c14,100$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,16532251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wild65c12,162$7,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,855.741,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wild65c11,918$7,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,751.952,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wild64c11,691$7,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,539.492,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wild63c11,344$7,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114.5275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blackhawks32c9,823$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,680.261,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Wild66c8,712$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,75032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wild65c8,633$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,609.591,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Wild64c8,470$5,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,411.2825447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Wild65c8,400$5,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,487.9833652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Wild65c7,777$5,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,055.057949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x759c…5f4bbacked Wild66c7,632$5,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,037.21050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f9e…17c3backed Blackhawks33c7,601$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,092.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+128.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Blackhawks32c7,350$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,99826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Wild66c6,157$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,090.0760249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Wild67c6,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Wild66c5,920$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907.24841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Blackhawks35c5,714$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.2950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wild65c5,555$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.7589547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Wild66c5,306$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.3436648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Wild66c5,200$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.9727850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Wild66c5,052$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33416843.5%73 W · 95 L-14.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Wild64c4,841$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.862948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Wild66c4,709$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.5566552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e32…e86bbacked Wild67c4,600$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Blackhawks53c4,156$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.981,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Wild66c4,068$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6853348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Wild66c4,010$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.4562249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blackhawks36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5601,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Blackhawks32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.9629146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Wild65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9139752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Blackhawks32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Blackhawks65c3,951$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.3289355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Wild63c3,948$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.42955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…2a01backed Wild66c3,861$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5481346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Wild68c3,676$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Blackhawks53c3,543$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.211,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Wild66c3,100$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0467358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blackhawks32c3,100$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.9783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Blackhawks35c3,061$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.551752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Wild65c3,044$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.8662346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Wild66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Wild66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Blackhawks35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95015145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Blackhawks35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6859…387dbacked Wild67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Wild66c2,950$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.942748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Wild66c2,770$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wild66c2,579$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.4261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wild65c2,299$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.3584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Wild66c2,262$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Wild45c2,222$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.558467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd7b9…41a9backed Wild31c2,080$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.8223159.3%137 W · 94 L+22.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Wild66c2,020$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.8445955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blackhawks35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3001,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wild66c1,985$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f85…7eeebacked Wild66c1,958$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blackhawks38c1,922$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.4260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wild66c1,896$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.241,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Wild46c1,794$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.373956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7baa…10f1backed Wild63c1,779$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1211258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Wild67c1,666$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.2189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Wild66c1,636$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0803050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94fc…7162backed Wild66c1,602$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Blackhawks37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.0938849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Wild67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Wild67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00520147.3%95 W · 106 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Blackhawks50c1,448$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.686657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Blackhawks55c1,419$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.211560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Wild68c1,400$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.734045%18 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Wild66c1,298$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8572871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wild38c1,292$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.912,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blackhawks52c1,256$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.93,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b4…2df7backed Wild67c1,250$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wild63c1,206$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.771,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Wild67c1,200$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79845749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…5657backed Wild67c1,117$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.395042%21 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0e8…2525backed Wild68c1,110$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7551163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Wild63c1,086$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.6433941.3%140 W · 199 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.