Dota2 · resolved market
Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e3418d34f1cd5c5881427c827ef0aa6177e5ef5542bae153f797a7f609f205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a56…10f5backed Yes | 50c | 1,273$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.79 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 78c | 1,209$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.16 | 385 | 54.8%211 W · 174 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 11c | 1,071$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…992fbacked Yes | 15c | 467.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…0a48backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 400.28$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Yes | 55c | 364.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 359 | 57.7%207 W · 152 L | +25.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 328.31$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 255$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 240.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 215$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 5c | 196$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 10c | 189.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 56c | 137.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…b3a8backed Yes | 51c | 131.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +159%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 41c | 129$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 119.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 112.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 24c | 84.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 38c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 40c | 75.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 44c | 70.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 454 | 70.7%321 W · 133 L | +26.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf476…6872backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f7e4backed Yes | 52c | 34.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…defabacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 61c | 31.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked No | 46c | 31.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 67c | 28.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…7134backed Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed No | 68c | 23.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 50c | 21.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…227fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…af9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…202bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?this page
- Will Mirana Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.