Dota2 · resolved market
Will Mirana Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa513f15e0a1b99ab2e783ee4723a52ff96983155fdcfd8344a5fc59a68896bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df4…0b7abacked Yes | 56c | 930.33$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.11 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 34c | 883.75$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.04 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Yes | 74c | 614.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.96 | 545 | 59.3%323 W · 222 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 592.97$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…dc6fbacked Yes | 73c | 518$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…992fbacked Yes | 29c | 510.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 390$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 371.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…0313backed Yes | 63c | 303.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 34c | 248.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 240.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 235$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 51c | 222.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 454 | 70.7%321 W · 133 L | +26.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 147$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 140.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 49c | 137.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 119.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed No | 36c | 67.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 359 | 57.7%207 W · 152 L | +25.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…2308backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 33c | 51.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…b3a8backed Yes | 31c | 50.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +159%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 49c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8177backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 30c | 38.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 46c | 26.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…77e9backed Yes | 78c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 58c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…c022backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…af9cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…202bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirana Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?this page
- Will Hoodwink Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.