Ligue 1 · resolved market

Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61616d6ce00ced44a80c42a6333b17c244c2e063f8bd5924917b2178e0a7b6ee

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $134,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $134,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,054 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a39…b0b9backed Over	49c	110,000$53,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56,599.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+106%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	51c	27,199$13,870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,870.23	243	49.4%120 W · 123 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under	52c	25,412$13,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,178.01	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+43%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,200	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	51c	9,995$5,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,097.45	1,415	40.8%577 W · 838 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under	51c	6,280$3,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,203.03	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	51c	5,990$3,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,054.8	525	50.1%263 W · 262 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	49c	4,694$2,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,393.91	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under	51c	3,136$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.36	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	52c	2,697$1,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,389.07	227	45.8%104 W · 123 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under	23c	2,600$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-35%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under	52c	2,510$1,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,295.84	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	52c	2,000$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	233	42.5%99 W · 134 L	-11.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	52c	2,000$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	260	41.9%109 W · 151 L	-13.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	51c	1,891$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.6	873	44.3%387 W · 486 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	1,810$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.48	1,916	45.5%872 W · 1,044 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under	52c	1,537$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Under	52c	1,500$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	52c	1,316$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.2	452	33.6%152 W · 300 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	52c	1,200$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	52c	1,066$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.8	90	46.7%42 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	51c	800$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23c…5ae7backed Under	2c	695.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…291fbacked Under	51c	691$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.41	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Under	51c	691$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under	51c	532$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.32	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	63	57.1%36 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under	51c	312$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.12	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x850b…5493backed Under	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ab6…fad4backed Under	52c	286$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	58c	254.88$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.04	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb109…d40fbacked Over	48c	210.37$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	77c	180.51$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.52	486	49%238 W · 248 L	+14.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	48c	162.75$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.63	183	51.4%94 W · 89 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	51c	144$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.15	304	48%146 W · 158 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…b506backed Under	33c	135.11$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9138…e556backed Over	78c	128.2$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Under	52c	83$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	51c	80$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	52c	76.04$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.54	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	51c	64$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	48c	56.7$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.48	464	50.4%234 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	24c	55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	52c	52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	25	56%14 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Over	78c	51.28$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under	51c	50.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	593	48.4%287 W · 306 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Over	76c	48.92$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.86	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	71cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	52c	44.51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	72c	39$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.84	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	77c	38.98$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.97	132	50.8%67 W · 65 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Under	51c	36.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Over	47c	34.03$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Under	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under	51c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d45…1c86backed Under	64c	31.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over	53c	30.3$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.24	380	56.6%215 W · 165 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Under	52c	28.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	51c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	177	56.5%100 W · 77 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under	52c	25.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea6…eaaebacked Over	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.65	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+95%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	136	55.9%76 W · 60 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	52c	23.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	58	60.3%35 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Under	51c	20.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	232	60.8%141 W · 91 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under	51c	19.85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…770ebacked Under	51c	19.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33ae…cf9ebacked Over	79c	15.12$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.12	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5this page
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5Over won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5Over won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5Under won
Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 5.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Le Mans FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event