Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61736300434b35c327c4e82dc9d18d243b6a50f9d7b6eaa89fca3f66133d2ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 63c | 3,027$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.17 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 40c | 2,746$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.52 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 28c | 1,940$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.4 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,437$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 1,429$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.8 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 32c | 969.67$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…e34dbacked Yes | 20c | 505.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 464.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 16c | 378.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.74 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 61c | 258.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 39c | 230.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed No | 44c | 226.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 53c | 218.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 32c | 205.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…2dccbacked No | 10c | 199.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 63c | 197.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 30c | 163.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 160.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 57c | 158.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 150.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 42c | 133.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 128$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 71c | 124$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…f2ddbacked Yes | 36c | 94.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 31c | 92.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 80.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 49c | 79.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 24c | 64.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 73c | 60.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 70c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…1c1abacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…6c77backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in April?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in April?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 15-19 executive orders in April?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in April?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 25-29 executive orders in April?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in April?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.