TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shiftersof Natus Vincere, Shifters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd92…6b2abacked Shifters51c55,901$28,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,661.728444%37 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked Natus Vincere50c39,719$19,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,865.0220339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Shifters50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00014247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a44…9cc6backed Natus Vincere49c13,348$6,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,540.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Natus Vincere51c9,728$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.7964443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Shifters49c7,196$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,697.111,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Shifters50c6,790$3,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3951,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Shifters50c6,694$3,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.2359450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere49c6,437$3,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,154.052,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere58c6,042$3,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485.6191854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Natus Vincere51c5,358$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.4313135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Shifters46c5,307$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,865.667056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere49c4,464$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.9659248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Natus Vincere49c3,736$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.46141%25 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Natus Vincere49c3,691$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.661,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Natus Vincere51c3,088$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.9634250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Shifters49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9944550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Shifters47c2,869$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.941,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Natus Vincere54c2,850$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.9937647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Natus Vincere50c2,803$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.6718742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Natus Vincere54c2,664$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.213831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Natus Vincere49c2,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.61540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Natus Vincere50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97053753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9597…efcabacked Shifters50c1,552$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7761266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Natus Vincere49c1,379$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.6714761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked Natus Vincere52c1,174$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.7930035%105 W · 195 L-21.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Natus Vincere51c1,165$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.0122142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Natus Vincere54c1,026$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2726042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Shifters38c1,016$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.8817136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007631.6%24 W · 52 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Shifters49c999.76$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.271,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Shifters45c860.5$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.7135346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere51c823.21$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.8490348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67b…b3d8backed Natus Vincere49c791.35$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.7624359.3%144 W · 99 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Natus Vincere49c785.41$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8527142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Natus Vincere51c732.8$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.7315950.9%81 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Shifters43c673.81$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.071,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Shifters49c600$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3091,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Shifters39c599.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.391,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Shifters43c595.78$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.67958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Shifters45c578.06$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7930050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Natus Vincere51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1811659.5%69 W · 47 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Natus Vincere49c537.05$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1515431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd037…5ea2backed Natus Vincere55c529.4$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.017733.8%26 W · 51 L-10.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Shifters43c516.59$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.4639055.4%216 W · 174 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ef…b4f0backed Natus Vincere49c489.05$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Shifters43c449.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.054443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere52c444.51$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1556432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere55c434.77$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.121,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f7…8980backed Natus Vincere60c429.26$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Shifters45c416.36$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2292,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Natus Vincere49c408.4$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.4712349.6%61 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked Natus Vincere49c396.48$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.281637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63b…b8cfbacked Natus Vincere49c393.7$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.913450%17 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddae…7d66backed Shifters51c386.85$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8212857.8%74 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere51c380.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1243640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Natus Vincere49c375.07$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7831337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Natus Vincere52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2410947.7%52 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Natus Vincere50c362.01$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18152750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Natus Vincere55c354.84$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.665063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shifters33c349.6$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.352,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Natus Vincere51c334.95$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8324656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shifters38c328.62$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.751,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Shifters49c319.87$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7127050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Natus Vincere51c315.36$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1344046.4%204 W · 236 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Shifters50c315.28$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.328253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Natus Vincere60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18034050%170 W · 170 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Shifters42c299.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17460538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3524backed Natus Vincere49c282.9$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Shifters50c279.19$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5986144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d1…0501backed Natus Vincere72c274$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere53c255.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.860849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Shifters50c246.19$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.098055%44 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Natus Vincere51c239.79$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.298749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc0…7faabacked Natus Vincere51c237.89$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3311329.2%33 W · 80 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Natus Vincere51c232.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.823240.5%94 W · 138 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Shifters52c209.55$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.591,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Shifters48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9536246.4%168 W · 194 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Natus Vincere50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde2a…669ebacked Natus Vincere49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987045.7%32 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afc…997cbacked Natus Vincere49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9428647.9%137 W · 149 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Shifters43c194.51$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.874447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere49c193.88$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9528240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Natus Vincere49c190$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.11952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4775…0bcebacked Shifters40c168.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.221369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Natus Vincere54c167.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7544743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Shifters48c166.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6652848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Natus Vincere49c148.38$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7116346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Shifters49c138.52$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6646154.9%253 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Natus Vincere48c133.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9916035%56 W · 104 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Natus Vincere51c133.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9447933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Natus Vincere71c130.83$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3733143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed Natus Vincere59c123.51$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8739266.6%261 W · 131 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ceb…f9e9backed Shifters51c121.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Shifters40c120.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.39060%54 W · 36 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+30%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Natus Vincere49c118.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1632142.1%135 W · 186 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Natus Vincere48c113.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Shifters32c113.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9527548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Natus Vincere52c109.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2724642.3%104 W · 142 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Shifters49c108.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4936047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.