Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63300ad57a0ec38bc97c5b92bdb3a8ce9c1b44e51581382ab86e0d39662a5e34

Rebuilt 11 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: OGof OG, Team Tidebound
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Team Tidebound	38c	14,731$5,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,626.86	122	56.6%69 W · 53 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound	22c	7,023$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,550.25	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed OG	71c	3,054$2,168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$885.69	62	61.3%38 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Tidebound	24c	2,421$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.31	341	46.6%159 W · 182 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed OG	63c	2,381$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.43	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed OG	72c	2,300$1,662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.1	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Team Tidebound	28c	1,836$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.98	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-5.3wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed OG	56c	1,778$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.76	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked OG	58c	1,720$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.75	410	55.6%228 W · 182 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Tidebound	40c	1,640$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.4	557	51.7%288 W · 269 L	+16.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed OG	63c	1,420$893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527	130	27.7%36 W · 94 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed OG	60c	1,391$834 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.94	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Tidebound	44c	1,200$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.99	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Tidebound	39c	1,133$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.84	858	51.3%440 W · 418 L	+30.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed OG	60c	1,053$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.84	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed OG	55c	999.98$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.99	42	64.3%27 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed OG	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Team Tidebound	20c	908.3$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.13	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked OG	71c	875.83$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.23	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Tidebound	23c	814$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.28	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Team Tidebound	45c	771.6$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.22	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Tidebound	40c	715.25$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.57	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Tidebound	21c	700$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked OG	79c	680$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.5	128	62.5%80 W · 48 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Tidebound	30c	594.51$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.52	364	42.3%154 W · 210 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked OG	78c	512.82$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.82	83	30.1%25 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9571…1d98backed OG	72c	496.72$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.08	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	69cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfe…5247backed OG	77c	475.62$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.38	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0271…156bbacked OG	58c	401.25$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.25	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG	60c	400$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3945…2ef2backed OG	58c	383.93$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.93	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked OG	56c	357.14$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.14	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed OG	56c	357.14$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.14	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2842…e81bbacked Team Tidebound	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed OG	56c	289.11$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.21	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG	80c	250.93$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.93	353	70%247 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked OG	77c	233.61$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.61	468	72.2%338 W · 130 L	+36.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked OG	60c	225$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	192	46.4%89 W · 103 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Team Tidebound	45c	222.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	876	45.7%400 W · 476 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fac…bdd8backed OG	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	134	56%75 W · 59 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked OG	54c	177.39$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.6	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Tidebound	23c	159.83$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.76	186	61.8%115 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Tidebound	16c	157.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Team Tidebound	15c	150$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8f99…f4d5backed OG	72c	138.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.89	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-3.6wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-51%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Team Tidebound	40c	138.8$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.97	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked OG	60c	131.55$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.62	96	61.5%59 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked OG	53c	110.05$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.73	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed OG	60c	101.58$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.86	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked OG	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	176	47.2%83 W · 93 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed OG	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	80	55%44 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c04…3fdbbacked OG	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	60cpaid	-41%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4b1…18ffbacked OG	54c	93.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.15	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1071…42cebacked Team Tidebound	35c	89.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked OG	78c	85.31$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.77	128	68%87 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed OG	75c	80$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d56…71dabacked Team Tidebound	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Team Tidebound	14c	74.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Team Tidebound	40c	70.48$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	269	58.7%158 W · 111 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50a…b40bbacked OG	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaef…db07backed OG	67c	66.85$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.85	144	61.8%89 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Team Tidebound	29c	64.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	131	57.3%75 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a1…52e5backed OG	56c	62.52$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.51	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3099…d252backed OG	69c	61.64$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	75	70.7%53 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed OG	79c	57.34$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	236	50.4%119 W · 117 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Tidebound	39c	55.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	555	61.8%343 W · 212 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed OG	50c	54.98$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.49	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Tidebound	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Team Tidebound	36c	41.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed OG	63c	37.91$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	203	61.6%125 W · 78 L	+22.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed OG	59c	33.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked OG	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x396a…b1d3backed OG	59c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed OG	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	240	26.7%64 W · 176 L	-30.5wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked Team Tidebound	47c	29.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	+6.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed OG	62c	28.32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.88	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Team Tidebound	41c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb438…8e8ebacked OG	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd78…5c5bbacked OG	59c	17.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed OG	69c	17.17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound (BO3)OG won
Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 WinnerOG won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event