CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d4e5140ff8b1fcddedc4931e07f841b3f8995f81fcde6ae67a5338abc86c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ground Zeroof Ground Zero, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ground Zero | 80c | 5,028$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.01 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Arcade Esports | 20c | 2,291$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.3 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arcade Esports | 8c | 2,183$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.42 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…9e9fbacked Arcade Esports | 19c | 1,411$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.12 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arcade Esports | 16c | 1,339$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.81 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arcade Esports | 15c | 1,047$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 1,005$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.81 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Ground Zero | 79c | 909.04$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.82 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Arcade Esports | 22c | 691.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 232 | 44.8%104 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Ground Zero | 79c | 649.35$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arcade Esports | 20c | 619.4$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Arcade Esports | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Arcade Esports | 16c | 421.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Arcade Esports | 18c | 380.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 379 | 22.2%84 W · 295 L | -43.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Arcade Esports | 23c | 369.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 360.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6eb…3156backed Arcade Esports | 18c | 352.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Arcade Esports | 21c | 334.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 299.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Arcade Esports | 24c | 255.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Ground Zero | 79c | 254.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arcade Esports | 20c | 224.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ground Zero | 75c | 188$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ground Zero | 80c | 176.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Arcade Esports | 20c | 171.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Ground Zero | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arcade Esports | 20c | 149.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Arcade Esports | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 143.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 371 | 45.6%169 W · 202 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Arcade Esports | 18c | 141.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ground Zero | 75c | 139.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Arcade Esports | 7c | 135.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Ground Zero | 77c | 131.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c312backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…bd66backed Ground Zero | 79c | 125.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…4a99backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 31%92 W · 205 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 107.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arcade Esports | 24c | 104.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Arcade Esports | 27c | 102.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 97.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arcade Esports | 35c | 92.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…80a4backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 88.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Ground Zero | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Arcade Esports | 19c | 64.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Ground Zero | 74c | 62.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Ground Zero | 74c | 55.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…e10cbacked Arcade Esports | 23c | 54.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Arcade Esports | 21c | 48.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…863bbacked Ground Zero | 77c | 41.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed Ground Zero | 73c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ac…2fb7backed Ground Zero | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Ground Zero | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…698abacked Arcade Esports | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked Ground Zero | 78c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ground Zero | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ground Zero | 80c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Ground Zero | 80c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Ground Zero | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Ground Zero | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ground Zero | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.