Earnings · resolved market
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655f306543c6be5c3f91614984a5fb409ca9fd35a42a1e9184138859e55a52cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 24c | 3,641$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.73 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…8bc6backed Yes | 70c | 716.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.7 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 59cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 651.71$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 77c | 648$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 53c | 529.54$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed Yes | 75c | 510.41$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 73c | 370.09$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 77c | 275$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x209a…9a8dbacked Yes | 75c | 271.62$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 76c | 253$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 39c | 249.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 55c | 191.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 77c | 162$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 155$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 46c | 127.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 44c | 105.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…4642backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 60c | 84.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 81.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 78.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed No | 46c | 67.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 51c | 48.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…8eaabacked No | 46c | 38.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed Yes | 39c | 34.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…a84dbacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…ddd3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…3b27backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9457…2733backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.