Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b087ad150a6059e0465ffb4cc8dd01c03722a9da0b3c5c60483eef03ba6b2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 6,295$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.84 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 9c | 6,079$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.02 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 8c | 3,512$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.29 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 2,877$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.73 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,290$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 11c | 920$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…20d4backed Yes | 1c | 901.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 11c | 800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 16c | 600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 552.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…2688backed Yes | 9c | 543.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed Yes | 10c | 541.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 2c | 487$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 466.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…d235backed Yes | 11c | 440.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 11c | 431$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed Yes | 16c | 302.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 288.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 4c | 284.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e89…8946backed Yes | 9c | 229.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 5c | 214.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…a904backed Yes | 10c | 202$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 16c | 201.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 9c | 176$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 165.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 10c | 133.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 11c | 109.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…4de5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?this page
- Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.