Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adbf1974e9648ec6f7e422021542cac77b46c885cc22b389fd2f7cc31472c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c57…cc9abacked No | 9c | 12,222$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 6,763$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.93 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 5,964$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.35 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 4c | 4,770$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 4,132$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…dc20backed No | 14c | 3,742$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 11c | 2,767$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,761$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9192backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 7c | 1,706$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 11c | 1,605$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 1,261$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 10c | 801$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 10c | 799.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 558.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 544$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 10c | 520$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e89…8946backed No | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 428$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 5c | 415.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 4c | 392.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 9c | 387.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 9c | 329.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 10c | 329.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 6c | 289.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 7c | 243.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 11c | 231$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 9c | 227.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 224.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 174$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 10c | 147.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 11c | 119.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5f8abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 81.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…a4a8backed No | 15c | 67.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?this page
- Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.