TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, McCartney Kessler
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb754…78a2backed McCartney Kessler0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed McCartney Kessler4c20,170$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.248,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed McCartney Kessler12c10,154$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.258,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked McCartney Kessler10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0458232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked McCartney Kessler11c8,908$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.937147.9%34 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed McCartney Kessler11c7,269$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.143,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a8…246dbacked McCartney Kessler8c6,182$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.699240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed McCartney Kessler11c6,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63018315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked McCartney Kessler12c5,998$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.576,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed McCartney Kessler11c5,382$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked McCartney Kessler16c5,000$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.2745036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked McCartney Kessler11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55016825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d99…9675backed McCartney Kessler18c4,890$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.4315530.3%47 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed McCartney Kessler10c3,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9931736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed McCartney Kessler3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed McCartney Kessler16c3,179$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed McCartney Kessler4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…ffe8backed McCartney Kessler18c2,401$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6311754.7%64 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked McCartney Kessler12c1,954$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4496945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed McCartney Kessler11c1,947$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.838033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f92…dec0backed McCartney Kessler7c1,891$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010445.2%47 W · 57 L-10.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked McCartney Kessler13c1,608$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.827732.5%90 W · 187 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed McCartney Kessler10c1,536$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.656651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed McCartney Kessler16c1,480$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2415457.1%88 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked McCartney Kessler10c1,464$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.754,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…9256backed McCartney Kessler15c1,180$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1125448.4%123 W · 131 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed McCartney Kessler11c1,116$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5736435.2%128 W · 236 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked McCartney Kessler11c1,073$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.062,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked McCartney Kessler4c1,071$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4519410.3%20 W · 174 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed McCartney Kessler11c1,007$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.293,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed McCartney Kessler16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5860943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked McCartney Kessler12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed McCartney Kessler16c1,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.889850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked McCartney Kessler11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Aryna Sabalenka80c836$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.26445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+64.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed McCartney Kessler5c807.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4952739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed McCartney Kessler11c750$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8548941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked McCartney Kessler11c743$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7356827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked McCartney Kessler4c731.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.634,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed McCartney Kessler7c697.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505728.1%16 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed McCartney Kessler7c672$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.192,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked McCartney Kessler11c600$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666450%32 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked McCartney Kessler10c599.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037944.6%169 W · 210 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked McCartney Kessler10c562$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.244851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1708…0619backed McCartney Kessler16c533.75$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856349.2%31 W · 32 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed McCartney Kessler14c505.72$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.782,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed McCartney Kessler11c498$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7828237.9%107 W · 175 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed McCartney Kessler11c480$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6759…1117backed McCartney Kessler20c410.92$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed McCartney Kessler10c346.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.832,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca61…dc6abacked McCartney Kessler18c336.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.992910.3%3 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x370c…6929backed McCartney Kessler16c334.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514947%70 W · 79 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed McCartney Kessler11c311.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.38241.5%34 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef3a…1eb3backed McCartney Kessler20c295.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017941.3%74 W · 105 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed McCartney Kessler17c287.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5729…b054backed McCartney Kessler19c261.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked McCartney Kessler12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015751.6%81 W · 76 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed McCartney Kessler11c211$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.219040%36 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked McCartney Kessler13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed McCartney Kessler11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed McCartney Kessler9c190.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-78.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked McCartney Kessler11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed McCartney Kessler11c169.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.824931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed McCartney Kessler14c152.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214360.1%86 W · 57 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed McCartney Kessler18c149.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.914,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…6cfabacked McCartney Kessler13c140$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed McCartney Kessler11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540161.1%245 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked McCartney Kessler22c134.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5419152.4%100 W · 91 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed McCartney Kessler9c126.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.886,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17eb…8db2backed McCartney Kessler12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked McCartney Kessler11c118.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1339254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed McCartney Kessler9c117$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.711,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed McCartney Kessler18c111.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208022.5%18 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed McCartney Kessler14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.449632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba56…10e8backed McCartney Kessler21c105.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210147.5%48 W · 53 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed McCartney Kessler14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7637233.9%126 W · 246 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed McCartney Kessler11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141644.5%185 W · 231 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed McCartney Kessler13c75.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed McCartney Kessler17c61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6128437.3%106 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.