Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6615e1ef5c9f0cdbf73193553ab5a40b35c67bcc8bbbf23c7e011a789dd070d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 856.23$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 552.67$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed Yes | 39c | 514.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 43c | 420.02$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.46 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 341.16$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 303$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 66c | 299.83$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked Yes | 34c | 279$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 264.07$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…48acbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 262.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 248.7$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 204.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 36c | 155$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 153.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 132.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 127.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 70c | 122.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 120.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 119.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 112.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 109$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 108.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 104.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 31c | 104$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 100.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 39c | 100.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 99.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…4f8fbacked Yes | 32c | 97.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 94.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 32c | 94.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 93.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 31c | 86.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked No | 68c | 82.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 79.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 62.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 57.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 56.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 56.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 55.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 51.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 49.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…f436backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed No | 70c | 47.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 46.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 40.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 30c | 35.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 34.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 67c | 33.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 68c | 31.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 30.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 66c | 29.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 70c | 29.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 23.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 72c | 19.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 19.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…7b5cbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 73c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 69c | 16.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.