Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7bdd86dfa9b4af9d3248e68059e3d2e29d439be65a575f911bc8687c9fc7200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 340.44$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 66c | 257.01$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 250.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 247.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 178.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 46c | 155.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 75c | 139.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 59c | 129.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 129.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 126.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 53c | 120.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 57c | 104.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 43c | 101.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 101.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 99.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 90.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 40c | 71.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 70.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 49c | 62.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 56.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 53.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 61c | 53.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 51.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 51.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 49.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 62c | 49.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 47.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 47.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 54c | 47.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 46.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 45.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 45.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 74c | 44.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 44.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 78c | 43.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 43.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 42.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 39.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 37.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 36.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 74c | 36.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 40c | 36.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 35.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed No | 53c | 34.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 33.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 45c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked Yes | 78c | 27.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed Yes | 48c | 24.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 52c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 62c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.