TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Orlando Magicof Portland Trail Blazers, Orlando Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff80…9b4dbacked Orlando Magic33c22,245$7,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,905.1813442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Portland Trail Blazers1c14,265$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.131222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked Portland Trail Blazers0c10,196$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x060f…5a9dbacked Portland Trail Blazers61c5,491$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,324.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Portland Trail Blazers1c5,334$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.325502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Portland Trail Blazers74c4,144$3,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,063.621,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Portland Trail Blazers53c3,007$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.1711160.4%67 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Portland Trail Blazers48c2,141$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.651,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Portland Trail Blazers55c2,049$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.210761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Orlando Magic40c2,038$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.89938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Portland Trail Blazers1c1,950$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Portland Trail Blazers49c1,762$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.8142842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Orlando Magic28c1,701$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.6368838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9461…6be0backed Portland Trail Blazers68c1,476$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Orlando Magic40c1,406$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.171947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Portland Trail Blazers37c1,254$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.93452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3099…3896backed Portland Trail Blazers78c1,095$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Portland Trail Blazers56c1,047$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Portland Trail Blazers54c1,043$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.6522753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Orlando Magic52c873.34$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.485954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Orlando Magic62c801.32$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed Portland Trail Blazers50c695.49$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…5369backed Portland Trail Blazers65c693.97$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Portland Trail Blazers31c571.5$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.96219.4%12 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Orlando Magic37c507.45$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4512846.9%60 W · 68 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Portland Trail Blazers34c504.44$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.911,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Portland Trail Blazers57c448.02$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.558654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Portland Trail Blazers18c402.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.131963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Orlando Magic19c393.95$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.0617237.2%64 W · 108 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c6…19e2backed Portland Trail Blazers37c387$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc11…4b4abacked Orlando Magic5c351.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.211100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Orlando Magic52c333.75$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.2862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Orlando Magic53c331.49$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.025076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed Portland Trail Blazers43c306.71$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Orlando Magic51c285.74$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9724937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…4750backed Portland Trail Blazers30c251.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-75.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Trail Blazers70c247.7$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.268,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ace…c46ebacked Portland Trail Blazers41c245.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Portland Trail Blazers33c235$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.551136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Orlando Magic48c233.43$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.199851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Portland Trail Blazers75c231.15$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3732351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Orlando Magic28c224.92$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.192835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Orlando Magic69c215.69$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Orlando Magic47c214.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.284856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Portland Trail Blazers47c212.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Portland Trail Blazers40c208$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Orlando Magic38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12424948.2%120 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x408c…2e26backed Portland Trail Blazers76c199.26$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Orlando Magic52c185.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.72781.5%22 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc6d4…1ffcbacked Orlando Magic20c180.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.011060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Orlando Magic39c180.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.132450%12 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Orlando Magic16c171$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.091154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf647…0ccbbacked Orlando Magic75c170.49$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Portland Trail Blazers78c160$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.271618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-60.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Orlando Magic64c156.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7762652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Orlando Magic61c156.44$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Portland Trail Blazers16c146.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8560250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Orlando Magic34c139.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9216664.5%107 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Orlando Magic48c130.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.775058%29 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f5…82b5backed Portland Trail Blazers40c125.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c7…5cecbacked Orlando Magic46c124.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.233351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Orlando Magic52c123.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.923920.5%8 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-64.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Portland Trail Blazers59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Orlando Magic42c95.96$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.413,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1052…c340backed Portland Trail Blazers59c93.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.429746.4%45 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…59f1backed Portland Trail Blazers45c85.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Portland Trail Blazers60c84.05$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7625753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Portland Trail Blazers64c84.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-42.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8766…4171backed Orlando Magic47c82.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.192176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Portland Trail Blazers38c76.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.153945.3%244 W · 295 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x663e…9cf0backed Orlando Magic43c70.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.362445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Portland Trail Blazers57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026235.9%94 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af9…620ebacked Orlando Magic60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Orlando Magic46c69.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.022245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Orlando Magic60c67.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9725954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5cd2…87f4backed Portland Trail Blazers32c63.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+54%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf983…39a0backed Portland Trail Blazers41c61.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2819…c2fcbacked Orlando Magic46c59.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e4…8b89backed Portland Trail Blazers38c58.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2b…ccedbacked Orlando Magic36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27a4…d44cbacked Portland Trail Blazers55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0846…a401backed Portland Trail Blazers37c53.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1110…ea61backed Portland Trail Blazers48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91250%6 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Portland Trail Blazers43c49.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2659743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1b…2576backed Orlando Magic36c44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f7…ff16backed Orlando Magic25c43.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+99.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Orlando Magic61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.620144.8%90 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1d…38cfbacked Orlando Magic40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Portland Trail Blazers39c39.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5330616.7%51 W · 255 L-36.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbef0…69c8backed Orlando Magic45c37.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.962948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Portland Trail Blazers64c32.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8813245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f2…3ef5backed Orlando Magic44c32.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Orlando Magic41c31.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6420353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Portland Trail Blazers50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Orlando Magic65c29.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2584443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69d7…c25cbacked Portland Trail Blazers74c26.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Portland Trail Blazers40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106734.3%23 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Orlando Magic61c22.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9833356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59d7…f69dbacked Portland Trail Blazers73c20.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210554.3%57 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b89…9f72backed Portland Trail Blazers54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.