Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x670e1a7cfa4be48acbad729846f463ffdf666a77fd98d23ba428935ed4ab703f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $483,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $452,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 0c | 36,871$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 0c | 27,051$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 26,204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 1c | 22,698$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 0c | 20,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 0c | 16,821$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 6c | 16,755$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.69 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…2220backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 2c | 11,909$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 0c | 10,941$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…53fabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…bd40backed No | 1c | 9,762$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 1c | 8,159$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked No | 2c | 6,205$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…8efabacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…7da5backed No | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 4c | 3,750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 3,343$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 10c | 2,418$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,874$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 8c | 1,874$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…ef31backed No | 1c | 1,618$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked No | 65c | 1,346$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 35c | 1,054$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.87 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 65c | 895.59$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.13 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 8c | 683.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed No | 68c | 555.97$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 43c | 526.79$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.27 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 64c | 470$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 395.37$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 5c | 356.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…72d4backed No | 65c | 341.54$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 296.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 56c | 296.47$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 14c | 293.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 70c | 231.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 32c | 227.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…edb3backed No | 16c | 210$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 28c | 188$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 35c | 159.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…4ae6backed Yes | 36c | 93.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…7844backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 25c | 58.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 65c | 58.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…2f37backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 41.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…de3ebacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…133dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…cf3abacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…121cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…57a8backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed No | 67c | 26.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…c671backed No | 80c | 25.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…c7f7backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.