NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-21.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x672f0c66c62781da1e3bf233440bb9cc33b3ad71d6c620fabec663de0dd552f2

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Raptors, Nets
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,580 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Nets	41c	2,208$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.46	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Raptors	60c	2,109$1,256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.8	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors	56c	1,808$1,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.01	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors	56c	1,285$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.85	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	42c	1,219$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.86	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nets	49c	1,077$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.26	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nets	42c	797.69$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.03	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Nets	47c	758.97$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.14	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Nets	42c	523.89$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.03	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	43c	418.9$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.13	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5b…cc75backed Nets	45c	416.88$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.6	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Raptors	59c	292.56$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.92	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nets	46c	218$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.28	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors	55c	212.29$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.43	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Raptors	52c	203.58$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.36	898	50.9%457 W · 441 L	+19.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Raptors	61c	203.31$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.52	111	43.2%48 W · 63 L	-9.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-21%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Raptors	58c	168.07$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.59	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Raptors	58c	147.73$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.05	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Raptors	58c	119.15$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.04	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…d98abacked Nets	43c	101.07$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.46	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nets	45c	96.7$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	688	38.5%265 W · 423 L	-26.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x983c…dd56backed Raptors	59c	82.66$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.89	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Nets	50c	78.37$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	528	61.9%327 W · 201 L	+32.3wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Nets	54c	71.65$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	135	54.8%74 W · 61 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Nets	44c	71.64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.52	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Raptors	53c	55.54$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	443	45.1%200 W · 243 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nets	42c	50.28$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nets	47c	42.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Raptors	58c	39.7$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.87	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…6039backed Nets	42c	34.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Raptors	59c	33.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.56	414	49.3%204 W · 210 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Nets	42c	31.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	160	20%32 W · 128 L	-27.0wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x9592…e568backed Raptors	54c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Raptors	58c	24.37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	96	49%47 W · 49 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Raptors	52c	23.81$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.43	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors	52c	23.81$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.43	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Raptors	52c	23.81$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.43	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Raptors	58c	22.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	166	53.6%89 W · 77 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-21.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event