NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-20.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9199ac8d49a8f58a97eda384217ec15c742f9bce271a58f0da6019eafc97237

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Raptors, Nets
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $86,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e3a…3246backed Raptors	60c	56,323$34,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,319.84	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nets	40c	46,101$18,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,249.01	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Nets	40c	16,320$6,527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,527.04	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+41%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Raptors	60c	3,750$2,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500.06	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Nets	48c	2,427$1,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.24	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors	52c	1,652$856 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.95	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Nets	46c	1,095$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.47	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Raptors	64c	1,002$645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.89	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors	60c	928.18$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.27	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Nets	43c	786.43$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.17	931	48.4%451 W · 480 L	+34.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Raptors	57c	490.35$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.85	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors	53c	429.04$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.65	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Raptors	57c	406.77$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.91	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Nets	42c	269.95$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.69	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Raptors	61c	238.84$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.42	218	48.2%105 W · 113 L	+11.0wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88c5…2909backed Nets	40c	233.77$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.51	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe720…0f1cbacked Nets	50c	203.88$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.85	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7202…e51abacked Raptors	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62de…39fbbacked Raptors	50c	198.51$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Raptors	58c	185.97$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.09	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raptors	60c	181.47$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.59	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd22c…287dbacked Nets	46c	142.64$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors	54c	126.83$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.34	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors	54c	124.52$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.21	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Nets	47c	116.18$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.61	147	31.3%46 W · 101 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Nets	47c	115.83$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.44	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.25per pick	47cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Raptors	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors	65c	94.89$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.21	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nets	43c	75.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Raptors	57c	68.36$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Nets	42c	68.32$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	293	44.4%130 W · 163 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Raptors	64c	63$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.47	786	39.2%308 W · 478 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7445…9c25backed Raptors	60c	50.9$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.15	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+175.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nets	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	688	38.5%265 W · 423 L	-26.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Raptors	53c	48.29$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.7	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Nets	46c	43.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Raptors	54c	42.98$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	394	48.7%192 W · 202 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Raptors	55c	38.12$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.15	248	41.9%104 W · 144 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…c546backed Raptors	72c	34.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.78	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-47%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a9…73debacked Nets	46c	30.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Raptors	68c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Raptors	68c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	404	40.1%162 W · 242 L	+12.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Raptors	57c	26.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.29	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Raptors	68c	25.73$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x58c8…b1a2backed Raptors	57c	25.64$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Raptors	50c	24.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.13	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Raptors	53c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	185	48.1%89 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Raptors	55c	20.25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.11	389	47.6%185 W · 204 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4188…8737backed Raptors	56c	19.63$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.64	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…b5c1backed Raptors	56c	18.79$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.27	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf155…f2c9backed Raptors	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Raptors	62c	17.38$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-20.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event