TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,084 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c4,303$1,974 inLost-$1,974.029,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over53c3,925$2,097 inWon+$1,827.91,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over55c3,000$1,650 inWon+$1,35022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Under45c1,311$585 inLost-$584.8715653.8%84 W · 72 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Under45c1,134$510 inLost-$510.4519351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under46c640$294 inLost-$294.43,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over56c277$155 inWon+$121.8885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over55c260.46$143 inWon+$117.2151146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under45c260$117 inLost-$1171,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over56c220$123 inWon+$96.836854.1%199 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over56c200$112 inWon+$881,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c151$70 inLost-$69.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under46c109$50 inLost-$50.142,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under46c100.46$46 inLost-$46.212,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Over56c91.07$51 inWon+$40.0712454%67 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Over57c57.89$33 inWon+$24.898760.9%53 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under46c32$15 inLost-$14.7276247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Over55c30$17 inWon+$13.518649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over57c28.07$16 inWon+$12.0741556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under43c28.07$12 inLost-$12.073,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cb…18e9backed Over56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.791241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Under45c25$11 inLost-$11.2514127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under46c23.7$11 inLost-$10.947349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.