TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Warriors, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Timberwolves50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors50c28,597$14,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,343.631,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors51c13,407$6,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,834.7174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Timberwolves49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1003839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Warriors51c8,577$4,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,416.213153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors51c7,670$3,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,911.692,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves48c6,872$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.971,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Timberwolves60c5,568$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.6673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Warriors53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3e79…29a7backed Timberwolves52c4,267$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.31450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors41c3,759$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves49c3,543$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.8648546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Warriors51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Warriors52c2,700$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4043941%16 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Timberwolves48c2,490$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.9148347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Warriors47c1,843$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.1320542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves49c1,836$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.361,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves56c1,831$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.185,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves49c1,822$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.2285147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves51c1,760$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.039,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Timberwolves51c1,733$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.3446258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves61c1,641$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.21,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Timberwolves51c1,582$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.251,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Warriors51c1,471$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Warriors42c1,349$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.372,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Timberwolves50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…f41ebacked Warriors33c1,138$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Timberwolves49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4141954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Warriors50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Timberwolves50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50015461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Warriors51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005147.1%24 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Timberwolves50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40036143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Timberwolves50c750$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37514639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves48c720.04$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.126,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors47c669.59$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves49c664.41$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.852,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves48c653.13$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Timberwolves51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2421055.2%116 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves53c578.96$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.081,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Warriors41c547.96$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.84233.3%14 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Timberwolves56c520.81$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.512655.6%70 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Timberwolves49c510$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.122836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Warriors10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves51c470$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.31,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Timberwolves53c432.19$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.195945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Timberwolves57c399.88$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3320150.7%102 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Warriors42c344.46$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8252643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Warriors41c342.89$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.882,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Timberwolves63c339.85$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.836150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Timberwolves50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15018140.3%73 W · 108 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Warriors51c276.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.732,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ac…4a3cbacked Timberwolves49c275$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+75.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d98…9580backed Timberwolves57c250$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde2e…6875backed Warriors53c236.02$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.096149.2%30 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Warriors52c206$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.122347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Timberwolves49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0823553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Warriors51c197.75$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8516552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Warriors51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors46c184.29$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.692,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Timberwolves48c168$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.366952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d8…99f0backed Warriors32c163.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…4dafbacked Timberwolves51c150.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.983562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Warriors46c150.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Warriors50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511346%52 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Timberwolves52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.891050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Warriors44c133.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.261,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Warriors42c125$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Timberwolves53c115.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1919556.9%111 W · 84 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Timberwolves49c106$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.063043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Warriors49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Timberwolves50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5026044.6%116 W · 144 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Timberwolves57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4318453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Timberwolves48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5238845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves57c99.05$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Timberwolves61c99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.618052.5%42 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Warriors51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Timberwolves53c98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.067353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Warriors42c95.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd4…ea9abacked Timberwolves67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.33per pick58cpaid+57.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Timberwolves56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2935844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9324…7e95backed Timberwolves52c76.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.965641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Timberwolves54c74.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2980744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90cb…ae5fbacked Timberwolves55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.731233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Timberwolves50c68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Timberwolves51c61.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3135326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Warriors30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184445.5%20 W · 24 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Warriors51c59.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Warriors52c53.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…a045backed Timberwolves49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.012661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Timberwolves49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.014949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Timberwolves51c50.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Warriors52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263250%16 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Timberwolves50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510261.8%63 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Warriors42c49.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.988652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Timberwolves61c49.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2624248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Timberwolves61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1816253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.