TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Under49c60,367$29,366 inLost-$29,366.0811535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over51c43,014$22,018 inWon+$20,996.062,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over52c10,000$5,200 inWon+$4,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over66c5,217$3,444 inWon+$1,773.9311750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over52c3,325$1,729 inWon+$1,5961,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c2,608$1,224 inLost-$1,223.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over53c1,701$896 inWon+$805.352,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c1,680$592 inLost-$591.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked Over56c1,627$911 inWon+$715.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c1,555$684 inLost-$684.234,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Over53c1,487$788 inWon+$698.9941652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5f…2753backed Over53c1,430$758 inWon+$672.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under52c1,304$678 inLost-$678.1792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Over51c759$387 inWon+$371.9127840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under34c668$227 inLost-$227.121,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Over69c583.27$400 inWon+$183.2727161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Over66c549.92$361 inWon+$188.9911155%61 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under48c500$240 inLost-$2402,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under31c358.9$110 inLost-$110.233,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under38c251.39$96 inLost-$95.7452643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over52c250$130 inWon+$12065855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under48c231$111 inLost-$110.882,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under47c219.13$103 inLost-$102.9995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under34c215.68$73 inLost-$73.182,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over67c200$133 inWon+$66.961,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb153…d8b5backed Over51c200$102 inWon+$987346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…0585backed Under40c200$80 inLost-$80955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under39c193.21$75 inLost-$75.332,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over56c88$49 inWon+$38.7244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed Under37c81.07$30 inLost-$30.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under34c76.27$26 inLost-$26.091,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under32c56.81$18 inLost-$18.0418554.1%100 W · 85 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.0849852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under34c34.67$12 inLost-$11.7263745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over60c33.28$20 inWon+$13.2822556.9%128 W · 97 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5899…032dbacked Under46c28.26$13 inLost-$132450%12 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd80…7503backed Over54c22.41$12 inWon+$10.412454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.