NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e76a24ad7b06f85376159c131633ca3f806d70da838aa1e4ece87a901ee6ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 47c | 375.67$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Over | 54c | 286.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 229.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 48c | 102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 48c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.