NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ddc27e4293bd24423a46a026fcc2521bb09f4f334f21e76096ad1131b098b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Under | 52c | 14,587$7,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,584.89 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fb…5199backed Over | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…0394backed Over | 48c | 10,201$4,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,304.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,015$4,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.69 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 4,408$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.89 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Over | 48c | 3,604$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 52c | 3,404$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,305$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 48c | 3,062$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.5 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 51c | 2,960$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.77 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 47c | 2,700$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 48c | 2,312$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.5 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 52c | 756$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 755$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 661$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Under | 47c | 440$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 48c | 172.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 53c | 152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 118.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 48c | 99.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Under | 55c | 97.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 48c | 87.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 80.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 72.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.