NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d59226c92de165426878d9f87e9c09bc86e0ab78d51a0c614b12c47566123d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 57c | 4,522$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.45 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 3,989$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 47c | 1,270$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 53c | 1,270$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 47c | 950$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…5366backed Over | 53c | 950$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 8c | 933.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 640$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 64c | 212.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 37c | 128$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…071dbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 39c | 97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 37c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 77c | 77.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Over | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 22c | 66.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 36c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Over | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 33c | 33.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Over | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.