NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01797b53befe4c1af948ea26d505f73b7e8e8582384c0cb4e7bae8093611a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 55c | 4,792$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.49 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Over | 58c | 1,735$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.78 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 43c | 874.14$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.14 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 45c | 786.4$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.88 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 45c | 755.56$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 54c | 656.18$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 640$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 512.91$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Under | 46c | 445.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 48c | 254.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 59c | 178$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 43c | 173$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…22aabacked Under | 45c | 165.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 45c | 165.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 43c | 161$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…5b77backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 58c | 74.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 42.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…6887backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.