NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df88c430d9fcd4b2254b3bfe8aaf67d075bada8f560532a9b52fe5949f64a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,524$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 58c | 1,104$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.46 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Under | 76c | 1,061$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.19 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Under | 37c | 910.2$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.2 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 21c | 761$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.19 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 734.74$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.37 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 687.82$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.87 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Over | 45c | 340.14$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.08 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 56c | 207$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Under | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 55c | 191$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 52c | 149.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 56c | 147$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 56c | 122$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 56c | 122$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 120.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed Under | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Over | 49c | 110.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 94.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 82.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Over | 49c | 81.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Under | 52c | 79.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 73.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked Under | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 45c | 51.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 69c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.