NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338d9a8f53a6b649a059f3a40349c826f442a107e152d277ac1dc513b1534f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Timberwolves, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98ff…4303backed Timberwolves | 45c | 260.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Warriors | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Warriors | 46c | 165$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…576ebacked Warriors | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Warriors | 57c | 142$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Warriors | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Warriors | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Warriors | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Warriors | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…ae5fbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…0997backed Timberwolves | 32c | 74.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Warriors | 77c | 72.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Warriors | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Timberwolves | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Warriors | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Warriors | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Warriors | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Timberwolves | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Timberwolves | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Warriors | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Warriors | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…210fbacked Warriors | 63c | 41.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Timberwolves | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Timberwolves | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Timberwolves | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Timberwolves | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Timberwolves | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Warriors | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Timberwolves | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Timberwolves | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Timberwolves | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…778fbacked Warriors | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Warriors | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Timberwolves | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Timberwolves | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Timberwolves | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Timberwolves | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Timberwolves | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Timberwolves | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors | 56c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Warriors | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.