NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77ef11285993dc9e632e14e216ab08015162f38f3abfc08db7c58a95bce96a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Warriors, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Timberwolves | 56c | 3,540$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.35 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 53c | 3,166$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 44c | 2,284$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Timberwolves | 56c | 2,165$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.78 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Warriors | 49c | 1,261$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.78 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,129$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.14 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 47c | 1,120$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.49 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 49c | 668.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 657.06$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves | 58c | 553.45$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.45 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Timberwolves | 53c | 543.25$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 521.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Warriors | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Warriors | 62c | 498$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 42c | 360.96$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Warriors | 46c | 291.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Timberwolves | 47c | 274.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Timberwolves | 45c | 205$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Warriors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Warriors | 43c | 176.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Timberwolves | 46c | 151$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 47c | 141.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 49c | 135.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Warriors | 50c | 120.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Timberwolves | 45c | 101$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Warriors | 55c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…8551backed Warriors | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Timberwolves | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Warriors | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Timberwolves | 46c | 63.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors | 54c | 58.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Timberwolves | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…4f5ebacked Warriors | 55c | 55.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Warriors | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Timberwolves | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Warriors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Warriors | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 37.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Warriors | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Warriors | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Warriors | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Warriors | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Warriors | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Timberwolves | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Warriors | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Warriors | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Timberwolves | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…d2e0backed Warriors | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Warriors | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Warriors | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Warriors | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Timberwolves | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Warriors | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Warriors | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Warriors | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Timberwolves | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Warriors | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.