TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked Timberwolves10c500$50 inLost-$5067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves45c250$112 inLost-$112.585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Warriors55c214.55$118 inWon+$96.5527161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Timberwolves45c165$75 inLost-$74.996349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves44c130.71$58 inLost-$57.511,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed Timberwolves48c117$56 inLost-$56.165141.2%21 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b1…2c4ebacked Warriors56c116.07$65 inWon+$51.076050%30 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Timberwolves54c97$52 inLost-$52.387162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Timberwolves46c87$40 inLost-$40.029258.7%54 W · 38 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Timberwolves46c80$37 inLost-$36.88752.9%46 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Timberwolves46c77$35 inLost-$35.426541.5%27 W · 38 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Timberwolves46c77$35 inLost-$35.424153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Timberwolves46c54$25 inLost-$24.849446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67a…304cbacked Warriors54c50$27 inWon+$233046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Warriors54c47$25 inWon+$21.624643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50ad…2c48backed Warriors54c47$25 inWon+$21.622958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Warriors49c43$21 inWon+$21.723339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Warriors54c37$20 inWon+$17.024755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Warriors55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.3648740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x597f…e9cfbacked Warriors55c32$18 inWon+$14.42857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Warriors54c31$17 inWon+$14.264360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Warriors52c31$16 inWon+$14.884057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf447…3fe7backed Warriors46c31$14 inWon+$16.742343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Warriors46c30$14 inWon+$16.22751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Warriors54c29$16 inWon+$13.343650%18 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26fc…2286backed Warriors54c28$15 inWon+$12.885552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Warriors52c25$13 inWon+$123857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b40…93f4backed Warriors55c24$13 inWon+$10.83658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Warriors55c24$13 inWon+$10.82343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb385…c1a4backed Warriors54c22$12 inWon+$10.122334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Warriors52c22$11 inWon+$10.563351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked Warriors54c21$11 inWon+$9.662556%14 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Warriors54c21$11 inWon+$9.662972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda54…dcaabacked Warriors54c20$11 inWon+$9.22240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.