NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2977b646d868e0961b25369e333eec099c93433817552cd29b4c496898c17981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Warriors, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves | 49c | 17,500$8,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,925 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors | 51c | 16,918$8,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,640.19 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Warriors | 56c | 15,605$8,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,807.85 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Warriors | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,649.97 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves | 44c | 10,889$4,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,144.68 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Timberwolves | 52c | 9,651$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,651.03 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 49c | 6,729$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 3,960$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 49c | 3,704$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Timberwolves | 51c | 2,400$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…fa57backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,042$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves | 43c | 1,895$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.87 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,708$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 51c | 1,637$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.07 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 56c | 1,302$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.07 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors | 60c | 1,148$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.2 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 39c | 1,048$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Warriors | 65c | 872$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.24 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Timberwolves | 49c | 689.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.8 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 45c | 588.39$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 49c | 505$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Warriors | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Timberwolves | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Timberwolves | 51c | 396.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Timberwolves | 51c | 365.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 238.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Warriors | 52c | 220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 33c | 166$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 50c | 162.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Timberwolves | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Warriors | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Warriors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Warriors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Timberwolves | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Warriors | 61c | 81.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 81.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Timberwolves | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Warriors | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Timberwolves | 40c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Timberwolves | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 58.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…dd6dbacked Warriors | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Timberwolves | 43c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Timberwolves | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Warriors | 59c | 54.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 49c | 52.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Warriors | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 49c | 51.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Timberwolves | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Timberwolves | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Warriors | 55c | 47.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Warriors | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Timberwolves | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors | 48c | 40.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Warriors | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Warriors | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Warriors | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Warriors | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Warriors | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…8551backed Warriors | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Warriors | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Warriors | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Warriors | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Warriors | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Timberwolves | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Timberwolves | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Warriors | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Warriors | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Warriors | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.