Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Switzerland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d0ea45bad9bc021c4e16fb732fbd527da086fef628a74c71ab8c47de882676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $366,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 55,588$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.88 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…f4d2backed Yes | 1c | 32,110$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc1…3ad0backed Yes | 1c | 31,047$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…972bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 218 | 7.3%16 W · 202 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…6813backed Yes | 1c | 7,920$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…dcdebacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 414 | 29%120 W · 294 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 0c | 4,645$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf173…e01dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 1c | 4,493$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 19.2%25 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…4a00backed Yes | 1c | 4,025$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 3,563$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,804$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…61c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,762$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…9404backed Yes | 1c | 2,727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 19.1%30 W · 127 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…8497backed Yes | 1c | 2,647$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987c…8c2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…c4e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,136$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 727 | 22.7%165 W · 562 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 246 | 35.8%88 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…7adfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…3874backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 18.4%19 W · 84 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…aa48backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c6…1462backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 19.3%60 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…34f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…bcf3backed Yes | 1c | 1,288$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 299 | 16.7%50 W · 249 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7c…2d36backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…98c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 1c | 966.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…1847backed Yes | 1c | 929.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…6a1dbacked Yes | 1c | 915.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 335 | 10.1%34 W · 301 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…093abacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Switzerland?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Switzerland?Yes won
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Switzerland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.