TailMyPicks
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TEC Esportsof EDward Gaming, TEC Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeac2…dddcbacked TEC Esports47c44,323$20,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,337.1412652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked EDward Gaming69c6,222$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked EDward Gaming47c5,833$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.51,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TEC Esports18c4,688$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.3419960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0aa4…5dc8backed EDward Gaming69c4,535$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.152564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed EDward Gaming53c3,742$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.746526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming72c3,017$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.641,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TEC Esports31c2,300$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.942035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked EDward Gaming61c2,163$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.511,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed EDward Gaming68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.9932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TEC Esports18c1,964$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.5317052.4%89 W · 81 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed EDward Gaming16c1,871$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5381834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa413…6c4abacked EDward Gaming32c1,847$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed TEC Esports18c1,713$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.697656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed EDward Gaming75c1,530$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.310566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed EDward Gaming76c1,517$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.166462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed TEC Esports16c1,500$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.9832445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked EDward Gaming43c1,468$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.381,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked TEC Esports15c1,337$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.3415217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed EDward Gaming24c1,321$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5266638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed EDward Gaming60c1,302$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.4615358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed EDward Gaming49c1,225$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.7215160.3%91 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TEC Esports41c1,150$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.4213050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed EDward Gaming17c1,075$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.756930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked EDward Gaming61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed EDward Gaming56c876.39$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.426137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed EDward Gaming63c756.86$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47919648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed TEC Esports13c675.15$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.0449455.3%273 W · 221 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked EDward Gaming61c661.19$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2451344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed EDward Gaming55c655.5$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.347544%33 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed TEC Esports32c651.92$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.765152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed TEC Esports17c642.3$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.16728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked EDward Gaming64c613.77$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.417642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked EDward Gaming48c610.68$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5940454.7%221 W · 183 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked EDward Gaming60c607.44$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.392433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc290…2e06backed EDward Gaming46c600$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.725414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed EDward Gaming52c598.92$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7143459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed EDward Gaming63c591.58$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.533546.6%156 W · 179 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked TEC Esports60c583.69$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4839047.9%187 W · 203 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked TEC Esports23c545.5$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.069737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9c…f546backed EDward Gaming67c542.07$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.4130%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed EDward Gaming37c531$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2135431.1%110 W · 244 L-29.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed TEC Esports25c493.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.2940345.9%185 W · 218 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed EDward Gaming17c488.86$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5630544.3%135 W · 170 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed EDward Gaming67c468.49$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.471464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked EDward Gaming27c425.75$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.087534.7%26 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed TEC Esports15c389.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9310946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed EDward Gaming74c380.22$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.1754542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e5…2498backed EDward Gaming75c369.23$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed TEC Esports40c330$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.093458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed EDward Gaming19c321.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0460423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x235d…450bbacked TEC Esports38c310$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed EDward Gaming67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.778345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed EDward Gaming68c294.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed TEC Esports29c273.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2614454.2%78 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed TEC Esports53c264.43$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.434660.9%28 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed TEC Esports39c259.08$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6869722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EDward Gaming78c256.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.991,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed EDward Gaming60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15034853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TEC Esports37c241.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0789344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed TEC Esports33c233.14$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.222118.1%40 W · 181 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming25c224.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1725536.9%94 W · 161 L-0.9wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c6…b25bbacked TEC Esports14c219.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.571250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+98.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed TEC Esports18c219.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.217949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked EDward Gaming76c215.26$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.462227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-44.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe40a…76fabacked EDward Gaming70c200.21$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.946352.4%33 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed EDward Gaming48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked EDward Gaming60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11928942.9%124 W · 165 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked TEC Esports22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1565062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed EDward Gaming57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked TEC Esports45c197.08$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9630835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked EDward Gaming56c177.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.027143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked TEC Esports33c166.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked EDward Gaming50c162.37$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2591333.2%303 W · 610 L-89.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed TEC Esports36c160.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.051,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked EDward Gaming41c160$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0478344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed TEC Esports58c160$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.232152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked TEC Esports19c155.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8122452.7%118 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed TEC Esports14c149.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4763948%307 W · 332 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed EDward Gaming67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed EDward Gaming65c146.95$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.263339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed EDward Gaming67c146.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.48357.8%48 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming64c145.96$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.911,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed EDward Gaming69c145.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.427052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe73…6d77backed TEC Esports19c140$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.43141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4219backed TEC Esports19c140$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.43141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed EDward Gaming50c139$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6699945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked EDward Gaming39c133.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6157550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked EDward Gaming58c131.09$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.631,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb00…2b37backed TEC Esports19c130$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.33135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed TEC Esports17c125.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.156535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed TEC Esports18c116.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9912335.8%44 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed EDward Gaming49c116.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4616133.5%54 W · 107 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed TEC Esports47c114.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3916144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…3dfabacked EDward Gaming62c114$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked EDward Gaming68c103.4$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5442051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe078…2dbbbacked TEC Esports18c103.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+337.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae74…f528backed EDward Gaming43c102$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.869545.3%43 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked TEC Esports31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6919951.8%103 W · 96 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e19…e1e8backed EDward Gaming64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.