Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2ac40946b26c809949d6af5d842b037c9c3cb1f86be5d614af2091b083fd34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Arizona, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $904,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,210,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $904,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Arizona | 4c | 132,387$4,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,980.52 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Arizona | 17c | 49,983$8,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,478.1 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -13.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Arizona | 14c | 49,827$7,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,159.21 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona | 19c | 44,043$8,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,246.23 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Arizona | 11c | 22,260$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.77 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Arizona | 17c | 19,118$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.06 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Arizona | 18c | 13,687$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.74 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Arizona | 16c | 13,446$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.24 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Arizona | 0c | 10,440$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Duke | 79c | 8,775$6,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.23 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…9ac8backed Arizona | 18c | 6,950$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Arizona | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Arizona | 18c | 5,000$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Arizona | 17c | 4,546$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.79 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Arizona | 19c | 4,477$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.44 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Arizona | 17c | 3,783$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.21 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Duke | 75c | 3,671$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.98 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…9726backed Arizona | 5c | 3,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Arizona | 12c | 3,203$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Arizona | 18c | 3,156$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.56 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Arizona | 13c | 2,524$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.68 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…fa14backed Arizona | 3c | 2,434$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Arizona | 16c | 2,170$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.19 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Arizona | 18c | 2,109$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Arizona | 5c | 2,074$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Arizona | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Arizona | 20c | 1,952$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Arizona | 22c | 1,827$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.94 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Arizona | 5c | 1,723$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked Duke | 75c | 1,692$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.88 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Arizona | 15c | 1,367$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Arizona | 18c | 1,333$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Arizona | 18c | 1,235$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.23 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Arizona | 2c | 1,206$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Arizona | 22c | 1,130$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Arizona | 1c | 1,128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Arizona | 3c | 1,046$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Arizona | 12c | 842.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…66bfbacked Arizona | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Duke | 75c | 759.89$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…7b47backed Arizona | 17c | 722.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…b9d9backed Arizona | 8c | 635.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona | 18c | 501.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…09b0backed Arizona | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Arizona | 17c | 444$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona | 17c | 405.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Arizona | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Arizona | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…9e23backed Arizona | 17c | 340.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Arizona | 19c | 289.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Duke | 79c | 285.77$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Arizona | 17c | 262.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Arizona | 19c | 259.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Arizona | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Arizona | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Arizona | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Arizona | 19c | 186.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Arizona | 18c | 163.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…6c24backed Duke | 77c | 149.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…66b7backed Arizona | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Arizona | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Arizona | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Arizona | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Arizona | 16c | 100.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Arizona | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…a802backed Arizona | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Arizona | 15c | 94.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Arizona | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Arizona | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…4d73backed Arizona | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9e0cbacked Arizona | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Arizona | 18c | 70.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Arizona | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…f5cebacked Arizona | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.