Tennis · resolved market

ATP Toronto – Popyrin vs. Rune

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b64d06b4e223bf27286e1b16a361625cc8175f473caf9f244cd34c4b5bdd929

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Popyrinof Popyrin, Rune
Resolved: Aug 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,315 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ef4…412cbacked Popyrin	36c	15,000$5,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,600	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Rune	64c	11,239$7,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,202.16	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Popyrin	34c	10,000$3,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,599.99	672	49.6%333 W · 339 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df4…342cbacked Rune	66c	5,135$3,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,389.23	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Rune	59c	4,691$2,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,765.24	178	33.1%59 W · 119 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rune	13c	4,682$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.96	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Rune	68c	4,364$2,947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,947	201	55.7%112 W · 89 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Popyrin	60c	3,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	260	39.2%102 W · 158 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Rune	66c	2,768$1,827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,827.11	122	31.1%38 W · 84 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Rune	4c	2,505$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.14	187	40.6%76 W · 111 L	+13.2wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Popyrin	33c	2,080$686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,393.6	161	40.4%65 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Rune	65c	2,000$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.1	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Popyrin	33c	2,000$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,339.98	581	39.9%232 W · 349 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Popyrin	35c	1,977$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,285.14	284	43%122 W · 162 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ab…3bb0backed Popyrin	32c	1,549$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,049.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Rune	68c	1,514$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Rune	30c	1,512$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.04	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Popyrin	56c	1,239$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.24	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Rune	68c	1,200$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Rune	66c	1,061$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Rune	67c	999.98$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.98	316	50%158 W · 158 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Popyrin	33c	963.52$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$645.56	765	46.8%358 W · 407 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471c…b252backed Rune	67c	945.73$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.13	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Rune	18c	650$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Rune	50c	600$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Popyrin	31c	500$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Rune	67c	484.03$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.74	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Popyrin	32c	456.31$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.68	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Rune	63c	440$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Rune	66c	435.42$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.07	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Rune	73c	409.07$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	68cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f47…120dbacked Rune	54c	395.91$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.35	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Rune	66c	312.12$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Rune	67c	298.51$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	148	43.9%65 W · 83 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Rune	67c	298.51$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Popyrin	34c	294.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.12	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Popyrin	34c	294.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.12	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda10…ffeabacked Rune	68c	294.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Popyrin	36c	278.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.06	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…14fcbacked Rune	68c	275.34$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.23	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Rune	73c	275.26$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	125	60%75 W · 50 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rune	65c	272.28$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.98	951	40.1%381 W · 570 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Rune	68c	259.46$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.43	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Popyrin	22c	252.53$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.97	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x731b…bdcabacked Rune	78c	252.53$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.97	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	71cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Popyrin	33c	252.27$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.02	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Rune	66c	244.32$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.43	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rune	29c	222.22$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.58	11,666	43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L	+22.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Popyrin	33c	200$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.75	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee1…a7aabacked Popyrin	32c	199.96$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.97	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Rune	77c	158.12$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.46	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Rune	67c	150$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Rune	67c	149.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	431	58.2%251 W · 180 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Popyrin	34c	147.06$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.06	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Popyrin	32c	147.06$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Popyrin	34c	133.49$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.49	650	40%260 W · 390 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e79…42e0backed Rune	68c	129.72$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.21	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58e…3af7backed Rune	63c	122.98$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.48	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Rune	68c	117.65$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Popyrin	22c	105$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.8	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Rune	67c	80$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.14per pick	68cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f4d…6be0backed Rune	68c	75$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Rune	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	306	39.9%122 W · 184 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…5976backed Rune	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rune	17c	73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	1,107	42.8%474 W · 633 L	-20.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Rune	74c	62.63$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	159	61%97 W · 62 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aea…c5f2backed Popyrin	33c	57.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.73	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fb…2b2abacked Popyrin	52c	52.94$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.41	44	75%33 W · 11 L	+5.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaef9…3b47backed Rune	38c	45.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c59…b8e9backed Popyrin	34c	44.12$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-58%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaece…c992backed Rune	61c	37.12$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Rune	66c	36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Rune	58c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	267	46.1%123 W · 144 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf2…85b7backed Rune	68c	32.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	89	58.4%52 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Rune	68c	29.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,339	46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L	+55.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae90…c05fbacked Rune	66c	24.22$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a3…a5bcbacked Rune	68c	22.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3635…17c8backed Rune	66c	18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	58cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a33…83abbacked Rune	68c	15.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac08…3f5fbacked Rune	68c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+62.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ATP Toronto – Popyrin vs. Rune

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market