Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4a1a30f95316bd658f164e14f397139f46edf6c6484112ca5488220d10abdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Brentford FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Manchester City FC | 29c | 60,513$17,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,013.04 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Brentford FC | 71c | 49,921$35,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,443.99 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Brentford FC | 73c | 6,269$4,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,596.34 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Brentford FC | 72c | 6,173$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.46 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Brentford FC | 75c | 5,914$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457.67 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked Brentford FC | 73c | 4,110$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 3,775$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.11 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Brentford FC | 71c | 1,469$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.07 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Manchester City FC | 26c | 1,191$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.14 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Manchester City FC | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.47 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Brentford FC | 72c | 983.99$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.47 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Brentford FC | 72c | 800$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 560 | 51.4%288 W · 272 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 720$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.4 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c3c0backed Manchester City FC | 21c | 647.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 640$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c2aebacked Manchester City FC | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Brentford FC | 72c | 480$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 354.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.93 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Brentford FC | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 258.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Manchester City FC | 27c | 228.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.93 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 222$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…d4cebacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 196.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 167.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC | 25c | 134.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2cabbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…0688backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 110.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 102.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 95.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Brentford FC | 72c | 87.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Brentford FC | 72c | 87.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…ced9backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Brentford FC | 72c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Manchester City FC | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Brentford FC | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 66.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 170 | 17.6%30 W · 140 L | -27.5wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Brentford FC | 72c | 59.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…6761backed Brentford FC | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Manchester City FC | 41c | 27.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Brentford FC | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…e693backed Brentford FC | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Brentford FC | 80c | 21.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Brentford FC | 72c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Brentford FC | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 164 | 54.9%90 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Brentford FC | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 184 | 63%116 W · 68 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Brentford FC | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.