Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc104b3404e58b07281a36c772ff7f62a9af267f63150417b13d1fc5a6e383985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked Under | 71c | 14,085$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.51 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 8,596$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.79 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 7,018$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.44 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 29c | 3,025$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.31 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…4758backed Under | 79c | 2,451$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 9c | 1,541$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Under | 71c | 1,402$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.58 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 72c | 1,250$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 23c | 1,098$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.48 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 70c | 1,096$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.86 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 70c | 807$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 28c | 767$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 10c | 598$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 70c | 463.33$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 70c | 399.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 164 | 54.9%90 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 361$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 29c | 210$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 73c | 209.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…f824backed Under | 73c | 205.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 75c | 202.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 29c | 194.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 164.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Under | 78c | 138.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Under | 74c | 133.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 29c | 113.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 12c | 106.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Over | 30c | 92.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 17c | 90.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 71c | 86.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Under | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…363ebacked Over | 30c | 72.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 29c | 69.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Over | 21c | 66.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 16c | 65.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 29c | 62.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 52.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Under | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Under | 74c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 27 | 88.9%24 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 71c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…9d8cbacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.