Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ce691090c416c12ca36aa87ac083ed88488baeaefa8679ffbef23534313e470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,108$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 549.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 514.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 24c | 322.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 277.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 246.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 236.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 216.26$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 32c | 206.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 199.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 186$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 182.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 163$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 63c | 159.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 73c | 157.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 38c | 144.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 123.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 106.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 92.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 80c | 84.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 83.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 79.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 78.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 77.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d43…d78abacked Yes | 32c | 76.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 75.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 74.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 65.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 63.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 61.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 59.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 27c | 56.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 23c | 55.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 24c | 49.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 34c | 47.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 47.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 44.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 42c | 41.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 38.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 27.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 23.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…1758backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 78c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 76c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.