South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d25f73ab73d9a61299e2a3eb6079a810e47174b136d1272326f83883153df50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 60c | 4,978$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.54 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 3,111$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 36c | 2,320$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.19 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 37c | 2,288$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.94 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 1,680$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 62c | 1,334$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.46 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 75c | 1,149$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.51 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Yes | 3c | 1,110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 53c | 1,083$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.94 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 69c | 1,021$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.49 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…deabbacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 32c | 758.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.99 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ddf1backed Yes | 14c | 667.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 3c | 583.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 510.06$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 80c | 510$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Yes | 13c | 490.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 490.16$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 17c | 484.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 79c | 458$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 456.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 66c | 454.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 368.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 11c | 368.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 47c | 309$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 35c | 297.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1d11backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 242.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Yes | 16c | 221.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 216.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 61c | 209.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 69c | 185.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 169.6$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 168.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 16c | 168.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 19c | 158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 15c | 134.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 63c | 113.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 64c | 106.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 72c | 101.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…1388backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 43c | 94.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 43c | 94.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 56c | 94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 62c | 92.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 31c | 91.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Yes | 16c | 88.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 57c | 85.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 22c | 76.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 55c | 75.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 57c | 74.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed No | 61c | 74.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 58.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…cb33backed No | 63c | 57.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 57c | 51.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…23d1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…29e4backed Yes | 72c | 41.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…572dbacked No | 38c | 39.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 42c | 36.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 74c | 32.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 70c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…a0aabacked No | 73c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 25.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 66c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 63c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.