TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c4,416$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.081,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c635$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.262,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes40c542.56$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No65c420$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.41,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes36c373.03$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c308.78$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.223146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No65c252$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4389557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes36c224.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.941,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes6c212.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1396015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No69c200.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.352,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes40c199.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4660550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes18c188.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.155,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c183.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.198,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No54c179.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No61c172.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No64c155$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.984,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes29c154.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No67c151$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8354853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed No67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.58652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c145$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.224,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c134.19$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c123$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes38c121.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611240.2%45 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c104.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No61c102.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.791,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3327552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3326256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3343959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes48c92.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2343540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No69c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9628666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes35c86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.186949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c84.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.454,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c84.46$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.994,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No67c82.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5316272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes31c81.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.551,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3156…8f96backed Yes34c71.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88620.9%18 W · 68 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No61c66.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.966966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No60c63.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1542366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes28c61.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0914919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No65c57.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.392,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes35c57.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c57.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.991,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes27c57.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.233,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes39c55.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.672,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c54.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x435e…f153backed No56c50.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.361050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.115961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae09…60fbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No60c43.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.551156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c42.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes38c41.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.657150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.626067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes39c38.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff0…0a65backed Yes40c35.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes34c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf444…8d4abacked No65c30.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.584971.4%35 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.421,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes42c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d3…1a2abacked No60c25.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.092540%10 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-34.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No64c24.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0125560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes44c24.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63bc…abc5backed Yes44c23.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.431766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06f…90acbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.639768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.416065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45756.1%32 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-18.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.223,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.428762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No54c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1913554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No60c19.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7415062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c19.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.093,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No64c16.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8349359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.