Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f674c7a16316d51245a5e98ef7347a58beec0b875faba333c9237d9808f65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 2,624$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.33 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 492.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 401$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…3880backed Yes | 32c | 397.26$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 39c | 373.48$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 347.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 279.53$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 271.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 72c | 256.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 72c | 256.47$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 255.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 30c | 235.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…686ebacked Yes | 31c | 231$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 72c | 230$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 226.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 217.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 54c | 208.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 201.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 199.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 38c | 192.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 191.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 162.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 150.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 140.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 137.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 30c | 116.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 116.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 115.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 28c | 108.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 105.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 102.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 99.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 98.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 94.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 93.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 85.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 83.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 82.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 23c | 81.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 24c | 66.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 66.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 64.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 57.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 27c | 55.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 54.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 77c | 53.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 35c | 49.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 23c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 42.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 57c | 30.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 38c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 77c | 13.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.