MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70fc938c38a5f1700564b478857870482417bc66336ba25f9e2229474eb3bc8b

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Miami Marlins
Resolved: Apr 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,938 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe934…640bbacked Miami Marlins	55c	6,381$3,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,509.34	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-4.4wins	-0.31per pick	53cpaid	-58%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Miami Marlins	55c	5,729$3,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,149.16	283	50.9%144 W · 139 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New York Yankees	45c	4,127$1,873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,254.31	1,029	51.2%527 W · 502 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees	45c	3,902$1,763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,139.75	1,355	49.8%675 W · 680 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins	55c	3,540$1,933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,933.3	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees	61c	2,811$1,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.61	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Yankees	45c	1,589$715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$874.15	366	49.2%180 W · 186 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees	32c	1,394$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$942.64	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Yankees	38c	1,241$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.56	1,194	29%346 W · 848 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees	45c	1,207$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.66	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed New York Yankees	45c	1,074$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.94	240	40.8%98 W · 142 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Miami Marlins	55c	1,061$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.8	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed New York Yankees	46c	967.6$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.5	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins	25c	933.51$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.67	1,728	50.4%871 W · 857 L	+57.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed New York Yankees	41c	869.41$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.56	113	31.9%36 W · 77 L	-7.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Miami Marlins	57c	843.77$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.16	650	50.3%327 W · 323 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees	45c	831.62$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.39	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed New York Yankees	45c	831.62$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.39	1,215	47.6%578 W · 637 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed New York Yankees	45c	831.62$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.39	157	53.5%84 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees	45c	819.92$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447.62	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins	64c	738.66$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.72	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed New York Yankees	45c	674.21$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.82	666	48.2%321 W · 345 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees	43c	586.97$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.25	6,123	55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L	+346.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Miami Marlins	53c	499.97$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.98	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed New York Yankees	48c	407.58$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.88	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked New York Yankees	43c	400$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+3.8wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked New York Yankees	46c	393.81$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.66	411	52.3%215 W · 196 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf879…820ebacked Miami Marlins	54c	358.62$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.65	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees	31c	305$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.25	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins	53c	302.29$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.72	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Miami Marlins	55c	296.21$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.78	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins	15c	295.65$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1,218	55.6%677 W · 541 L	+94.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f05…d802backed New York Yankees	45c	259.93$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.96	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeecf…9e86backed New York Yankees	45c	225.63$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Yankees	47c	206$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.18	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed New York Yankees	50c	204.57$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.29	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x483a…4fd0backed New York Yankees	46c	199.83$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.91	80	51.3%41 W · 39 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1009…3c2bbacked Miami Marlins	56c	198.54$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed New York Yankees	47c	166.06$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.01	286	46.2%132 W · 154 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed New York Yankees	47c	144.2$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.43	569	46.9%267 W · 302 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked New York Yankees	45c	143.02$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.23	477	45.7%218 W · 259 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Miami Marlins	55c	141.53$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.84	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…7b27backed New York Yankees	47c	132.83$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.4	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Miami Marlins	55c	120.3$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.16	133	51.9%69 W · 64 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Yankees	45c	116.04$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.82	564	40.4%228 W · 336 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Miami Marlins	22c	110.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	875	52.7%461 W · 414 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Miami Marlins	50c	107.56$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Miami Marlins	27c	104.43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked New York Yankees	47c	96.82$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.31	341	45.2%154 W · 187 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New York Yankees	69c	91.07$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.79	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed New York Yankees	69c	83.42$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.86	304	54.3%165 W · 139 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Miami Marlins	31c	75$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+11.3wins	+0.13per pick	17cpaid	+83.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Miami Marlins	54c	73.74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	187	54%101 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins	57c	66.51$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	667	49.3%329 W · 338 L	-22.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed New York Yankees	47c	66.41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	328	46.6%153 W · 175 L	-13.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed New York Yankees	40c	65.29$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.11	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Miami Marlins	54c	64.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.01	313	50.2%157 W · 156 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked New York Yankees	45c	64.8$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.52	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…67ebbacked New York Yankees	48c	60.55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.49	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed New York Yankees	45c	58.84$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.36	678	49.3%334 W · 344 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins	76c	55.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.35	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins	55c	53.07$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	467	59.7%279 W · 188 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Miami Marlins	56c	45.18$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Miami Marlins	54c	41.81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5e…5cdbbacked New York Yankees	47c	40.37$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.4	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.28per pick	29cpaid	+92.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins	36c	39.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,928	17.2%331 W · 1,597 L	-320.9wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdb80…34c6backed New York Yankees	51c	36.16$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…66d4backed New York Yankees	46c	36.15$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.52	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked New York Yankees	34c	36$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	378	44.4%168 W · 210 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Miami Marlins	55c	35.38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees	45c	33.38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	4,087	57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L	+66.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed New York Yankees	45c	32$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked New York Yankees	46c	31.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-6.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf15f…a199backed New York Yankees	46c	31.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	79	57%45 W · 34 L	+6.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b2e…d2abbacked New York Yankees	46c	31.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	125	48%60 W · 65 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed New York Yankees	45c	29.2$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Miami Marlins	56c	28.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a39…1a00backed Miami Marlins	51c	27.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa596…15e9backed Miami Marlins	78c	25.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins	55c	24.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Miami Marlins	53c	23.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45db…08f3backed Miami Marlins	53c	23.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-4.3wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e55…f5a3backed Miami Marlins	75c	22.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Yankees won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event